Bluff break-even calculator
Enter the pot and your bet. The calculator shows how often your opponent has to fold for a bet with no equity to break even.
- Folds needed to break even
- 33.3%
- Your bet as a share of the pot
- 50%
| Bet | 33% | 50% | 75% | Pot | 150% | 200% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folds needed | 25% | 33% | 43% | 50% | 60% | 67% |
The break-even point of a bluff
A bluff risks the bet to win the pot. It breaks even when the folds pay for the times you are called: bet / (pot + bet).
A half-pot bet needs folds 33% of the time. A pot-sized bet needs 50%. A bet of twice the pot needs 67%.
Why real bluffs need less
The formula assumes you always lose when called. A hand with outs, such as a flush draw, still wins some of those pots, so it needs fewer folds than the number shown. That is why draws make better bluffs than hands with no way to improve.
Questions
- How often does a half-pot bluff need to work?
- One time in three. You risk half a pot to win a full pot: 0.5 / (1 + 0.5) = 33%.
- What is fold equity?
- Fold equity is the value you gain from the chance that your opponent folds. A bluff makes money when that chance is higher than the break-even point of the bet.
- Is the break-even point the same as minimum defence frequency?
- They are two sides of the same bet. If a bluff needs 33% folds to break even, the defender has to continue with more than 67% of their range to stop any two cards from bluffing at a profit.
More tools
Practise the decisions themselves in the trainer: ten hands at a time, with the answer and the reason.